Prior to Brett Favre’s “shocking” (note the sarcasm) reversal and decision to return to the NFL, AccuScore gave Sage Rosenfels the edge over Tarvaris Jackson and in 10,000 season simulations AccuScore had Minnesota and Green Bay neck-and-neck in the NFC North.
| WITHOUT FAVRE PLAYING | ||||
| NFC NORTH | PLAYOFF | WIN DIV | WIN | LOSS |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS | 64% | 41% | 10.0 | 6.0 |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS | 63% | 41% | 9.8 | 6.2 |
| CHICAGO BEARS | 35% | 17% | 8.6 | 7.4 |
| DETROIT LIONS | 1% | 1% | 3.8 | 12.2 |
However, with Favre set to play for the Vikings, AccuScore gives the edge to Minnesota to win the division.
| WITH FAVRE BACK | ||||
| NFC NORTH | PLAYOFF | WIN DIV | WIN | LOSS |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS | 75% | 55% | 10.7 | 5.3 |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS | 59% | 31% | 10.0 | 6.0 |
| CHICAGO BEARS | 32% | 14% | 8.4 | 7.5 |
| DETROIT LIONS | 1% | 1% | 3.7 | 12.3 |
Brett Favre finished the 2008 season poorly because he played games hurt in bad weather. Favre is presumably healthy and he gets to play in a dome with the only really bad weather game on the schedule likely to be Week 16 at Chicago. While Favre struggled in Minnesota early in his career in Green Bay, at this point in his career it will help him.
It also helps that Favre has a dynamic running back like Adrian Peterson and the intriguingly explosive rookie Percy Harvin. Statistically speaking, AccuScore does not project Favre to have a great season, but he is out-performing the combination of Rosenfels and Jackson.
| SIMULATION STATS | CMP | ATT | % | YARDS | YPA | TD | INT |
| Brett Favre | 276 | 423 | 65.3% | 3231 | 7.6 | 23 | 16 |
| Jackson / Rosenfels | 272 | 432 | 63.1% | 3184 | 7.4 | 22 | 21 |
Favre is an upgrade over the current Vikings QBs for two reasons:
- Even though he throws too many interceptions, Brett Favre is still better than Sage Rosenfels in limiting turnovers.
- He is a far more accurate a passer overall, on third down, and in the red zone over Tarvaris Jackson.
A third reason why Favre boosts the Vikings is his impact on the running game. When Favre is playing well opposing defenses cannot load up the box to stop the run which will open up even more explosive runs for Adrian Peterson. When Favre is playing poorly, opposing defenses look to get interceptions which still prevent them from stacking the box with defenders. In other words, good or bad, Brett Favre helps the running game. Thomas Jones of the Jets had just 1 TD in 2007 before Favre arrived, but improved to 13 TDs playing with Favre.
With Brett Favre at QB, Adrian Peterson is expected to have 30 more carries and over 100 more yards. His yards per carry may not be different, but the Vikings will get more first downs which result in more offensive plays (passing and rushing). Favre also helps the Vikings build more fourth quarter leads which results in more rushing plays to control time of possession late in the game.
| ADRIAN PETERSON | RUSH | YARDS | YPC | TD |
| w/o Favre | 340 | 1668 | 4.9 | 13 |
| With Favre | 368 | 1803 | 4.9 | 14 |
As silly and annoying it may be to see Favre flip-flopping like this, this is a good move for Minnesota. With the exception of a great pass defense, the Vikings have a very strong team that is legit Super Bowl contender even if Favre has career low passing stats.
