Fantasy Preview

AccuScore Fantasy PLUS and Winner’s Edge Members can download both the full 50 page NFL Fantasy Preview and the Excel file with full season statistical projections for over 400 players (updated weekly). For everyone else, here’s a quick preview of AccuScore’s Fantasy Rankings for Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Wide Receivers.

QUARTERBACKS

There are 5 elite Fantasy QBs who should be taken in the first two rounds of most drafts – Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. While we think Brady will be healthy enough to be the clear #1 QB, the rest of the 4 are tightly bunched together and you really can’t go wrong with any of them. One perk Aaron Rodgers gives you is one or two fantasy points scrambling. One warning about Kurt Warner. AccuScore’s projections show he will be best in Week 13-17. While this could boost your chances in the fantasy playoffs, Warner is older and there’s a chance he might get hurt and not even be at full strength at the end of the season.

ELITE QB	AVG	CMP	ATT	%	YD	TD	INT	SACK	RUSHYD
Tom Brady	18.9	372	539	69.0%	4354	38	10	23	6
Aaron Rodgers	17.8	339	514	66.0%	3997	30	11	30	229
Kurt Warner	17.4	373	554	67.3%	4419	34	14	25	0
Drew Brees	17.4	384	582	66.0%	4645	32	14	27	28
Peyton Manning	17.0	380	566	67.1%	4392	30	12	24	6

The second tier of QBs (3^rd and 4^th round draft picks that will start most weeks for fantasy teams) includes Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck and Tony Romo. We do not think Cutler will be a Top Tier QB in Chicago because the Bears are not going to pass the ball over 62% of the time like Denver did last season. Donovan McNabb is too inconsistent (remember he got benched last season). Matt Schaub has not proven he can stay healthy. If he were 100% healthy he could be an elite fantasy QB. David Garrard isn’t a great QB, but he gets 2 or 3 more points scrambling.

It is a surprise to see Philip Rivers and Tony Romo not listed as elite fantasy QBs. The Chargers played poorly in 2008 and LT was playing hurt. This resulted in the Chargers relying on the pass more than they would like to and having to pass to get back into games. If the defense bounces back with Merriman and the running game is more productive, it will result in fewer pass attempts, especially late in games when the team is running the ball to wind down the clock faster. The Cowboys have 3 great RBs and are likely to be a run-oriented team. Tony Romo is producing plenty of TDs, but his yardage stats are not expected to be as high as in past seasons because of a lower pass to rush ratio.

SOLID STARTERS	AVG	CMP	ATT	%	YD	TD	INT	SACK	RUSHYD
Jay Cutler	16.2	358	561	63.8%	3967	28	15	25	184
Donovan McNabb	16.1	352	571	61.6%	4083	26	11	29	127
Matt Schaub	15.2	385	566	68.0%	4276	25	15	29	125
David Garrard	14.3	333	520	64.0%	3586	18	12	37	340
Philip Rivers	13.9	280	452	61.9%	3543	26	12	24	65
Matt Hasselbeck	13.6	314	529	59.4%	3596	23	17	36	181
Ben Roethlisberger	13.3	309	491	62.9%	3778	22	14	38	60
Matt Ryan	13.0	290	459	63.2%	3491	22	11	22	74
Carson Palmer	13.0	347	554	62.6%	3795	23	18	26	51
Tony Romo	13.0	319	524	60.9%	3602	26	17	25	39

There are a number of “third tier” QBs who should be drafted in the middle rounds because even if they are not rated in the Top 15 on this list, they could easily be Top 12 QBs if a few things go there way. Jason Campbell may never win a playoff game as a starting QB, but he should rush for over 200 yards while keeping his interceptions low. Joe Flacco does not have the deep threats to maximize his strong arm and the Ravens are a run-first team, but the potential is there for bigger things. Eli Manning’s passer rating was down 10 points without Plaxico Burress. If one of their young WRs, like rookie Hakeem Nicks, can fill Burress’ shoes then Manning could zoom up the rankings.

OTHER QB	AVG	CMP	ATT	%	YD	TD	INT	SACK	RUSHYD
Jason Campbell	12.7	318	515	61.7%	3371	17	11	37	238
Chad Pennington	12.2	341	500	68.2%	3503	20	11	27	9
Matt Cassel	12.2	322	542	59.4%	3359	17	12	47	164
Joe Flacco	11.8	284	454	62.6%	3102	18	11	29	143
Eli Manning	11.7	280	480	58.3%	3245	21	12	24	14
Trent Edwards	10.7	258	408	63.2%	2881	19	10	20	43
Kyle Orton	10.6	320	550	58.2%	3432	17	15	29	12

RUNNING BACKS

There are 7 elite RBs on our list with Adrian Peterson leading the way by a significant margin. With Brett Favre retired AccuScore is expecting the Vikings to run the ball a ton and Peterson should be over 350 carries again. While we do not think this heavy workload is good for Peterson’s longevity he should be able to handle it for at least one more season before injuries start taking their toll. Maurice Jones-Drew gets to be the primary RB for the first time and his double digit rushing TDs and 60+ forecasted receptions make him a strong #2. Matt Forte is 9^th on our list in rushing yards, but 3^rd in fantasy value because of his receiving totals. The rest of the list is not a surprise. We do not expect as huge a year from DeAngelo Williams because the quality of opposing run defenses is much stronger in 2009 than in 2008.

Michael Turner averaged 137 yards against teams in 6 games against sub-par run defenses. He averaged 87 yards against average or good defenses. The 2009 Atlanta schedule is much tougher and as a result Turner’s production is expected to dip considerably. His 1400+, 12 TD forecast is very good considering the quality of defenses he is facing, but the numbers are down from 2008. Assuming Brandon Jacobs stays healthy and gets 16+ carries per game his great ypc and TD production makes him an elite Rb.

ELITE RB	AVG	RUSH	YD	YPC	RUSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Adrian Peterson	17.0	362	1780	4.92	13.6	23	176	0.8
Maurice Jones-Drew	15.8	289	1283	4.44	9.9	59	490	2.6
Matt Forte	15.7	297	1150	3.87	8.7	69	610	5.0
DeAngelo Williams	14.8	253	1393	5.51	12.8	24	159	1.4
Chris Johnson	14.6	255	1305	5.12	11.0	50	294	2.0
Michael Turner	14.1	321	1453	4.52	12.1	15	92	0.7
Brandon Jacobs	14.1	265	1380	5.20	12.4	16	119	1.1

Our Solid Starters RB lists includes RBs with elite potential. There are varying reports that Houston may not want to make Slaton be a 300+ carry RB but keep him at that 250 range. If Slaton is a workhorse RB with 280+ rushes then he is an elite RB.

The big surprises on this list are Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber. Westbrook showed signs of age and wear and tear in 2008. He is still having a terrific year in simulations, but his ypc is now closer to 4 than it is to 5. Marion Barber may already be on the decline after 3+ seasons of his bruising running style. Dallas will likely use all 3 RBs assuming they all stay healthy and this cuts into Barber’s touches.

SOLID STARTERS	AVG	RUSH	YD	YPC	RUSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Brian Westbrook	13.7	247	1009	4.09	8.0	55	457	5.0
Clinton Portis	13.7	336	1370	4.08	8.4	38	290	1.5
LaDainian Tomlinson	13.6	293	1187	4.05	10.1	43	328	1.9
Steve Slaton	13.6	252	1180	4.68	9.6	52	341	2.2
Steven Jackson	12.7	278	1068	3.84	6.5	62	486	2.7
Pierre Thomas	12.6	186	869	4.67	7.7	38	336	2.9
Frank Gore	12.3	257	1072	4.17	6.5	50	422	2.5
Joseph Addai	12.2	237	914	3.86	7.2	54	430	3.7
Marion Barber III	11.8	246	1017	4.13	7.0	53	384	2.4
Ronnie Brown	11.8	227	987	4.35	8.0	44	342	2.1
Willie Parker	11.6	319	1252	3.92	9.4	13	74	0.5

There are number of potentially great RBs not listed as solid starters. In many cases they are playing in a crowded backfield, but if one or two teammates get hurt they could find themselves getting the touches needed to not only be a fantasy starter, but an elite RB.

OTHER STARTERS	AVG	RUSH	YD	YPC	RUSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Thomas Jones	11.0	261	1121	4.29	6.7	31	215	1.3
Kevin Smith	10.7	225	894	3.97	6.3	52	382	1.9
Darren McFadden	10.5	186	794	4.28	5.7	57	481	2.0
Ray Rice	10.2	206	818	3.97	5.6	50	398	2.0
Ryan Grant	9.9	288	1047	3.63	6.3	24	149	1.2
Jonathan Stewart	9.7	159	782	4.92	7.7	9	75	0.2
Marshawn Lynch	12.0	251	984	3.92	6.3	29	190	1.1
Jamal Lewis	9.6	285	915	3.21	5.0	38	286	1.6
Darren Sproles	9.6	106	501	4.75	3.9	31	329	3.2
Fred Jackson	9.1	190	818	4.31	4.3	43	310	1.9
Larry Johnson	8.9	232	902	3.88	5.5	26	173	1.3
Reggie Bush	8.7	124	447	3.59	2.8	60	469	3.5
Ahmad Bradshaw	8.2	146	702	4.80	4.2	16	143	1.6
Derrick Ward	8.1	137	625	4.56	3.0	51	400	2.1
LenDale White	8.1	198	812	4.09	7.2	9	57	0.4
Chris Wells	8.0	185	795	4.31	6.6	13	103	0.6
Felix Jones	7.8	92	637	6.92	6.4	9	56	0.4
Sammy Morris	7.6	137	668	4.88	5.6	23	179	1.1
Timothy Hightower	7.5	148	544	3.67	6.3	30	206	1.6
Cedric Benson	7.4	246	737	3.00	3.6	31	214	1.0
Leon Washington	7.2	67	438	6.57	4.3	37	252	1.4
Julius Jones	7.3	203	777	3.83	3.9	21	144	0.8
Laurence Maroney	7.2	162	660	4.07	4.8	11	112	0.5
Percy Harvin	7.1	63	343	5.47	3.1	31	395	2.2
Jerious Norwood	7.0	75	363	4.85	2.6	28	244	1.5

WIDE RECEIVERS

It seems that Anquan Boldin is “re-committing” to being with the Cardinals and he and Larry Fitzgerald both are elite WRs. Randy Moss may not break his own single season receiving TD record, but he should be good for nearly 1 TD per game with Tom Brady back. Reggie Wayne is officially Peyton Manning’s #1. Andre Johnson could be the #1 WR in PPR (point per reception) leagues. Calvin Johnson might be the best WR in the league considering what he has accomplished playing on such a bad team. While rarely would you draft a WR in the first 2 rounds, you might just consider it with these WRs, especially in PPR leagues.

ELITE WR	AVG	REC	RECYD	YPR	RECTD	OTHERTD
Larry Fitzgerald	15.0	100	1559	15.5	14.2	0.0
Randy Moss	13.7	83	1282	15.4	15.4	0.0
Calvin Johnson	13.0	89	1490	16.7	10.4	0.1
Andre Johnson	12.8	127	1523	11.9	9.2	0.0
Reggie Wayne	12.5	104	1451	14.0	9.6	0.0
Anquan Boldin	12.1	101	1247	12.3	11.6	0.1

Wes Welker leads the list of Solid Starter WRs. In PPR leagues he gains elite status. Greg Jennings has elite potential, but the Packers spread the ball around amongst 4 different WRs. His production per reception is elite. Steve Smith’s potential is capped somewhat by Jake Delhomme’s inconsistency.

SOLID STARTERS	AVG	REC	RECYD	YPR	RECTD	OTHERTD
Wesley Welker	11.4	117	1282	10.9	8.4	0.2
Greg Jennings	11.3	75	1193	16.0	10.5	0.0
Steve Smith	10.9	89	1332	15.0	6.6	0.1
Roddy White	10.3	83	1230	14.8	7.2	0.0
Marques Colston	9.3	74	1059	14.3	7.4	0.0
Kevin Walter	9.2	80	1014	12.7	7.5	0.1
Anthony Gonzalez	8.9	87	1075	12.4	6.2	0.0
Antonio Bryant	8.8	83	1092	13.1	5.6	0.0
Braylon Edwards	8.8	73	1067	14.6	6.0	0.0
Hines Ward	8.5	81	1026	12.7	5.9	0.0

It is likely going to be a shock to see Brandon Marshall (104 Rec in 15 games) and Eddie Royal (91 Rec in 15 games) ranked so low. In 2008 their production (YAC, drops, TDs) per reception was average. Jay Cutler had over 600 pass attempts. The new regime in Denver will look to establish a more balanced offense which reduces their fantasy value. They also added WR Jabar Gaffney who has been starting in training camp as Brandon Marshall is hurt. His presence also lowers Royal and Marshall’s value.

OTHER WR	AVG	REC	RECYD	YPR	RECTD	OTHERTD
Eddie Royal	8.2	70	682	9.8	3.0	1.3
Chad Ochocinco	8.1	75	970	12.9	5.7	0.0
Donald Driver	8.1	77	976	12.7	5.5	0.0
Terrell Owens	8.0	55	857	15.6	7.1	0.0
Torry Holt	8.0	83	991	11.9	5.0	0.0
Santana Moss	7.9	76	958	12.7	4.8	0.2
Derrick Mason	7.9	76	953	12.6	5.5	0.0
Santonio Holmes	7.9	55	896	16.2	6.0	0.2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	7.7	82	916	11.2	5.1	0.1
Roy Williams	7.6	69	860	12.4	5.8	0.1
Bernard Berrian	7.5	50	811	16.2	5.1	1.1
Lance Moore	7.4	58	693	11.9	6.6	0.3
Steve Breaston	7.2	56	667	12.0	2.6	0.7
Josh Morgan	7.2	45	792	17.7	6.1	0.0
Vincent Jackson	7.1	47	778	16.6	5.2	0.2
Dwayne Bowe	7.1	75	866	11.6	4.8	0.0
Percy Harvin	7.1	31	395	12.6	2.2	3.7
Brandon Marshall	6.8	78	894	11.4	3.7	0.0
Devin Hester	6.8	53	713	13.4	4.1	0.9
Laveranues Coles	6.7	59	751	12.7	5.5	0.0
DeSean Jackson	6.4	44	688	15.8	2.7	1.3

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